The Falcons head into next week knowing they have to win both their remaining matches after falling to defeat at Edgbaston.
The Bears piled up 198 for two thanks to powerful half-centuries from Dan Mousley (60 not out from 44 balls), Sam Hain (52 not out from 30) and Moeen Ali (59, 32).
A modest start (21 from four overs) turned into a daunting total of which the Falcons fell short at 154 all out from 19.2 overs. No-one passed 30 as spinners Danny Briggs (three for 24) and Jake Lintott (two for 24) dismantled the top and middle orders to take their combined T20 wicket tally to 379.
The Falcons can still qualify but are under pressure to win their last two games, starting at Worcester next Thursday.
Put in, the Bears made a subdued start, taking just seven runs from the first 15 balls. Mohammad Amir produced a beauty to have Alex Davies caught behind and the Bears hit only four fours in the powerplay which they ended on 41 for one.
Moeen than exploded into aggression. Having meandered to 25 from 23 balls, he thundered to 50 in just another five with four sixes in five balls off Samit Patel and Alex Thomson. Pat Brown unfurled a clever slower ball which Moeen gloved behind but the impetus created by the captain was emphatically taken up by Mousley and Hain in an unbroken third-wicket partnership of 111 in 62 balls.
Mousley reached his eighth T20 half-century, and second in successive games, from 39 balls. Hain followed to his 33rd T20 half-century from 29 balls, one of which was smashed for arguably the most glorious six in the history of T20, over extra cover off Amir.
The Falcons enjoyed a strong powerplay, reaching 60 for one for the loss of Luis Reece, who skied George Garton to mid on, but thereafter the scoreboard pressure took its toll. David Lloyd lifted his first ball for six but was bamboozled and bowled by Danny Briggs’ first ball. Lintott also struck in his first over when Aneurin Donald (30 off 19) sought the crowd over long off but found only Mousley just inside the boundary.
Wayne Madsen and Patel have the talent to tackle the biggest chases but when they perished in the space of four balls the Falcons’ challenge was over. Patel hit three sixes on his way to 28 but then sliced Lintott to extra cover. Hain collected that catch and was there again when Madsen lifted a drive at Briggs.
The potentially destructive Ross Whiteley fell lbw slog-sweeping at Briggs and the Falcons drifted further and further behind the required rate and the tail tried their best to not avail.